🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."